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<div class="post-body" itemprop="articleBody"><h3 id="一分为二"><a href="#一分为二" class="headerlink" title="一分为二"></a>一分为二</h3><p>一分为二是一种非常强烈的思维本能，其中有三种情况很容易触发这种本能：只比较平均数、只比较极端案例和只俯视不仰视。<br>平均数最大的问题在于，它用一个简单的数字取代大量数据的分布规律。<br>极端案例很容易使人们产/生兴趣，却并不能帮助我们理解这个世界。<br>从高层建筑向下俯视，很难辨别矮层建筑的真实高度，因为它们看起来都一样矮。<br>要有效控制一分为二的错误本能，就要坚持寻找绝大多数。</p>
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<h3 id="负面思维"><a href="#负面思维" class="headerlink" title="负面思维"></a>负面思维</h3><p>真实的世界没有人们想象的那么糟糕，世界正在变坏，是一个重大误解。<br>统计学中，当差别小于10%，不要轻易做任何结论。<br>坏事比好事更能引起人们关注，而且这个世界正在变得越来越透明。<br>负面思维的原因：记忆美化、选择性报道、把状态当趋势。<br>负面思维最大的恶果就是它会使人失去希望。</p>
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<h3 id="直线思维"><a href="#直线思维" class="headerlink" title="直线思维"></a>直线思维</h3><p>人们对一件事情不够熟悉的时候，很容易假设它是按照直线发展的。<br>直线发展的事物在现实中是很少见的，更多是按照S形曲线、滑梯曲线、驼峰曲线、倍增曲线规律发展。</p>
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<h3 id="恐惧本能"><a href="#恐惧本能" class="headerlink" title="恐惧本能"></a>恐惧本能</h3><p>当我们陷入恐惧的时候，我们就无法看到现实。<br>在所有情绪化的本能中，恐惧是最能影响媒体对于大众新闻的选择。<br>恐惧常见类型有人身伤害、受困和疾病，多重恐惧同时被激发，这个事件就会变得非常引人注目。<br>恐惧本能帮助穷人生存，但对富人往往有害无利。<br>当有着共同恐惧的时候，我们会看到人们可以如此亲密无间地一起合作。<br>风险=危险程度X发生的可能性</p>
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<h3 id="规模错觉"><a href="#规模错觉" class="headerlink" title="规模错觉"></a>规模错觉</h3><p>人们总是容易注意局部而忽略整体。<br>越南抗美纪念碑0.9米高，摆脱法国殖民纪念碑3.6米高。<br>无论媒体如何报道，我们都应该更关注家庭暴力而不是熊杀人。</p>
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<h3 id="以偏概全"><a href="#以偏概全" class="headerlink" title="以偏概全"></a>以偏概全</h3><p>警惕“大多数”说法，51%和99%都是“大多数”，但是它们天差地别，如男女对立中的微小差别往往被无限放大。<br>当我们讨论一个群体时，时刻反思我们的分类方法是否正确。<br>不要假设别人是傻瓜，当看到很奇怪的事情，应该保持好奇和谦卑之心，去探究这现象背后的道理。</p>
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<h3 id="命中注定"><a href="#命中注定" class="headerlink" title="命中注定"></a>命中注定</h3><p>这不是东方的大男子主义，也不是伊斯兰教的大男子主义，这和60年前的瑞典一样，只是一种历史上的大男子主义。<br>每年1%的改变，70年完成翻倍；每年2%的改变，35年翻倍；每年3%的改变，24年翻倍。<br>要想控制命中注定的本能，就不要忽视微小的改变。<br>收集文化改变的案例以反驳人们固执的文化守旧。</p>
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<h3 id="单一视角"><a href="#单一视角" class="headerlink" title="单一视角"></a>单一视角</h3><p>要想控制单一视角的本能，必须有一个工具箱，而不仅仅是一把锤子。<br>不要认为自己在专业之外有什么真知灼见，对未知的领域保持谦逊，同时也要注意专家也有他们的局限性。</p>
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<h3 id="归咎他人"><a href="#归咎他人" class="headerlink" title="归咎他人"></a>归咎他人</h3><p>梅毒在俄罗斯，被称作波兰病；在波兰，被称作德国病；在德国，被称作法国病；在法国，被称为意大利病，在意大利，被称作法国病。<br>当我们找到替罪羊，就停止了思考，而事实往往非常复杂，往往存在系统性的原因。<br>要控制归咎他人的本能，就要停止寻找替罪羊。<br>当某事发生，多寻找原因和系统，而不是找坏人或英雄。</p>
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<h3 id="情急生乱"><a href="#情急生乱" class="headerlink" title="情急生乱"></a>情急生乱</h3><p>恐惧和情急会使人们做出愚蠢的决定，并带来不可预知的痛苦。<br>数据必须用来讲述事实，而不应该带有目的性，无论这是多么高尚的目的。</p>
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<h3 id="实践中的实事求是"><a href="#实践中的实事求是" class="headerlink" title="实践中的实事求是"></a>实践中的实事求是</h3><p>当有人拿着刀威胁你，千万不要转过身去，而是直视他的双眼，问他遇到了什么问题。<br>永远保持谦卑和好奇，与无知作斗争。</p>
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